

Swan’s Agentic Software Factory: Cygnet Evolved
How Swan built an agentic software factory that finds production bugs, reaches consensus on the fix, opens the PR, and proves it works before a human merges.
In this article
The next Bitcoin halving is expected around April 2028, when the network reaches block 1,050,000. The reward for mining a block will then drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. The network was at block 972,640 on October 22, 2026, so the halving is 77,360 blocks away. At the target pace of one block every 10 minutes, that puts the halving around April 11, 2028 (our calculation). CoinWarz projects April 8, 2028, based on a recent average block time of 9 minutes 57 seconds (as of October 22, 2026).
The date is an estimate because halvings happen at a block height, not on a calendar day. Bitcoin aims for one block every 10 minutes, but real block times vary. Since the difficulty adjustment on October 16, 2026, blocks have arrived about every 9.7 minutes on average, according to mempool.space (as of October 22, 2026). Expect the estimate to move by days as the halving gets closer.
Estimated date: about April 8 to 11, 2028 (estimate, as of October 22, 2026)
Block height: 1,050,000
Blocks remaining: 77,360 (block 972,640 on October 22, 2026)
Block reward: 3.125 BTC now, 1.5625 BTC after the halving
Halving number: the 5th of 33
1st halving: November 28, 2012, block 210,000, reward 50 → 25 BTC, Bitcoin about $12
2nd halving: July 9, 2016, block 420,000, reward 25 → 12.5 BTC, Bitcoin about $650
3rd halving: May 11, 2020, block 630,000, reward 12.5 → 6.25 BTC, Bitcoin about $8,600
4th halving: April 20, 2024, block 840,000, reward 6.25 → 3.125 BTC, Bitcoin about $63,800
5th halving (next): about April 2028 (estimate), block 1,050,000, reward 3.125 → 1.5625 BTC
6th halving: about 2032 (estimate), block 1,260,000, reward 1.5625 → 0.78125 BTC
Prices are from CoinWarz (accessed October 22, 2026) and BIT (July 8, 2026).
The 2024 halving came at 00:09 UTC on April 20, which was the evening of April 19 in US time zones. That’s why you’ll see both dates quoted.
Trading View
The halving is a rule written into Bitcoin’s code. Every 210,000 blocks, roughly every four years, the number of new Bitcoin paid to miners for each block is cut in half. It started at 50 BTC per block in 2009 and is 3.125 BTC today.
The halving is how Bitcoin enforces its fixed supply. No company, government or developer decides how many new coins to make. The schedule was set at launch and every node on the network enforces it. For the bigger picture, see how Bitcoin actually works.
Each halving cuts the number of new Bitcoin per day in half, and Bitcoin’s supply growth with it. Here is what that looks like, calculated from the reward schedule (144 blocks a day) and the total supply at each halving:
After 2012: 3,600 new BTC a day, supply growing about 12.5% a year
After 2016: 1,800 new BTC a day, about 4.2% a year
After 2020: 900 new BTC a day, about 1.8% a year
After 2024 (today): 450 new BTC a day, about 0.83% a year
After 2028: 225 new BTC a day, about 0.40% a year
After 2032: about 113 new BTC a day, about 0.20% a year
These are our calculations: annual new supply divided by total supply at the start of each period. Blocks often arrive a little faster than every 10 minutes, so actual issuance runs slightly higher.
Supply shock. Each halving cuts new supply in half overnight. After April 2028, only about 225 new Bitcoin will be created per day, down from about 450 today. More on supply shocks and monetary debasement.
Low and falling inflation. Bitcoin’s supply grows about 0.83% a year today and about 0.40% after 2028. Gold has no such schedule: about two-thirds of all the gold ever mined was dug up after 1950, according to the World Gold Council. See why goldbugs don’t understand money.
Pressure on miners. Miners' income in Bitcoin halves while their power bills don’t. The least efficient miners shut down, and the network’s hashrate and difficulty adjust.
Predictability. You can calculate exactly how many Bitcoin will exist on any future date. No other money works like that.
For what $1 buys in Bitcoin’s smallest unit today, see how many sats are in a Bitcoin.
In every cycle so far, Bitcoin set a new all-time high 12 to 18 months after a halving. Past performance does not guarantee the next cycle will match.
2012 halving (about $12): peaked around $1,100 in November 2013, about 367 days later
2016 halving (about $650): peaked around $20,000 in December 2017, about 525 days later
2020 halving (about $8,600): peaked around $69,000 in November 2021, about 548 days later
2024 halving (about $63,800): peaked around $126,000 on October 6, 2025, about 534 days later
Peaks for 2013, 2017 and 2021 are from CoinGecko (updated April 17, 2026). The 2025 peak is from CryptoPotato (October 18, 2025). Days are counted from the halving date to the peak date.
The 2024 cycle was different in two ways. Bitcoin hit an all-time high before the halving: $73,797 on March 14, 2024, driven by the new spot ETFs. And 2025 ended down about 6%, the first negative year after a halving. Some analysts argue each halving matters less for price than the last; see the diminishing influence of halvings on Bitcoin’s price and three myths about the halving. For where analysts expect the price to go next, see our Bitcoin price prediction.
Miners' income in Bitcoin halves overnight. On each halving day, the new block reward was worth about $300 in 2012 (25 BTC at $12), about $8,100 in 2016, about $53,800 in 2020 and about $199,400 in 2024. At Bitcoin’s price of about $81,200 on October 22, 2026 (mempool.space), the 2028 reward of 1.5625 BTC would be worth about $126,900, less than the 2024 reward unless the price rises. These are our calculations from the halving-day prices above.
That squeeze is why mining costs matter so much. See how much it costs to mine a Bitcoin and Swan’s mining unit.
Mined so far: about 20.1 million BTC, roughly 95.7% of the total, as of October 22, 2026. We calculated this from the current block height and the reward schedule.
When the 2028 halving begins: 20,343,750 BTC (96.9%).
99% mined: around 2035, near block 1.41 million.
The last Bitcoin: around the year 2140. After 33 halvings the block reward rounds down to zero satoshis, and miners will earn transaction fees only.
An earlier version of this article said 99% would be mined by 2032. The correct estimate is about 2035.
Miners compete to add the next block of transactions and earn the block reward plus fees.
Every node checks the block height. At each multiple of 210,000 blocks, the reward miners are allowed to claim halves.
A miner that claims more than the allowed reward gets its block rejected by the rest of the network.
Difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks to keep blocks about 10 minutes apart, so the schedule stays on track even as computing power changes.
The rule itself is a few lines in Bitcoin Core’s GetBlockSubsidy function: it divides the block height by 210,000 and halves the starting 50 BTC reward that many times.
The halving is a reminder that Bitcoin’s supply is fixed and gets scarcer on schedule. You don’t need to time it: many Swan clients simply buy a fixed amount every week or month and let the schedule work in the background.
Buy automatically every day, week, or month, starting with as little as $10.
Around April 2028 at block 1,050,000. As of October 22, 2026, estimates point to about April 8 to 11, 2028.
77,360 blocks as of October 22, 2026, when the network was at block 972,640.
1.5625 BTC, down from 3.125 BTC.
About 450 today (3.125 BTC times about 144 blocks a day), falling to about 225 after the 2028 halving.
33 in total. The last one happens around 2140.
April 20, 2024 (UTC), at block 840,000. That was the evening of April 19 in the US.
In each past cycle Bitcoin reached a new high 12 to 18 months later, but that is not guaranteed.
mempool.space: current block height (972,640, as of Oct 22, 2026)
Blockchain.com: current block count (972,640, as of Oct 22, 2026)
mempool.space: difficulty adjustment and average block time (as of Oct 22, 2026)
CoinWarz halving tracker and history (accessed Oct 22, 2026)
World Gold Council: how much gold has been mined (end-Q2 2026)
CoinGecko: when Bitcoin hit all-time highs (updated Apr 17, 2026)
March 14, 2024 pre-halving high (The National) (Apr 18, 2024)
In this article
Thoughts on Bitcoin from the Swan team and friends.
How Swan built an agentic software factory that finds production bugs, reaches consensus on the fix, opens the PR, and proves it works before a human merges.
Total federal debt crossed $40 trillion last week. Jeremy Showalter maps how we got here, where four institutional projections take it by 2050, and why the honest total is already about $55 trillion.
From entropy and SHA-256 to proof of work and the 21 million cap: a first principles guide to how Bitcoin works, and what you can verify yourself.








